Entropy of "OODA" in Information Warfare
Issue 23, 21 March 2022
I. Military and Warfare
Entropy of "OODA" in Information Warfare/Informatized Warfare
First in series exploring entropy of "Observe–Orient–Decide–Act" (OODA) in information warfare, this article written by Yang Zuo, Sun Shidong, and Su Zhiguang of Unit 61001 of PLA (61001部队) introduce basics of entropy in OODA in Information Warfare/Informatized Warfare (信息化作战 Xìnxī huà zuòzhàn).
Entropy is generally used in Physics, but here it could refer to its other meaning - "gradual decline into disorder" or "lack of predictability." the authors have highlighted broad categories of difficulties that can increase entropy in informatized conditions in the military. There are:
Difficulties in collecting and processing data
Difficulties in making a judgment
Difficulties in decision making
Difficulties in action
Here are the highlights from the article.
According to the authors, the ultimate direction of entropy reduction in the military must be accompanied by intelligence, driving the combat system to accelerate the development of battlefield visualization, command flattening, and action integration on the basis of the "OODA" cycle logic. This means to reduce unpredictability in military operations, more reconnaissance, omnidirectional transparency, faster and more precise control, and more immediate and efficient strikes are needed.
Difficulties in collecting and processing ocean of data
Writers indicate that as there are boundless observations to be made, the traditional methods of observations and data collections may not be sufficient. Under informatized conditions, this uncertainty in observations systems may increase a gap in data collection and data processing capability. They highlight three difficulties on modern-day battlefields:
Heavy transmission burden (传输负担加重): Transmission burden is heavy on the battlefield due to increased data transmission requirements and limited transmission capabilities. The authors cite that even a small operation can generate a large amount of data, sometimes as high as 60TB.
Reduced processing time (处理时效降低): The increasingly diverse means of obtaining intelligence and the greatly expanded data source channels make information more and more semi-structured or unstructured. Bid data may have irregular formats, inconsistent standards, incomplete elements, and untimely updates. This makes information processing slower, ultimately affecting the combat.
High linkage requirements (联动要求变高): On the battlefield, to ensure the integrity and accuracy of detection data on a vast and unbounded information domain, it is necessary to use various types of detection sensors in a network.
Difficulties in judgment
The vast amount of data can also cause confusion of judgment.
If not done efficiently, it can add to the "fog of war." Three difficulties are highlighted by authors
that can cause confusion in judgment.
Difficulty in situation analysis (态势研判难度大): Under the informatized conditions, the real and virtual interfere with each other since the combat domain covers the physical domain, information domain, cognitive domain, and other multi-dimensional time and space. With the expansion of the target range on the battlefield, the rapid increase in the accuracy of detection and search, and the exponentially explosive expansion of the volume of information, it is necessary to systematically organize, quickly screen, and transform this information in real-time.
Difficulty in information analysis (信息分析难点多): With the expansion of the target range on the battlefield, the rapid increase in the accuracy of detection and search, and the exponentially explosive expansion of the volume of information, it is necessary to systematically organize, quickly screen, and transform this information in real-time.
High risk of intelligent judgment (情报判别风险高): The advanced application of new tactics such as electromagnetic interference warfare, data deception warfare, algorithm check-and-balance warfare, and psychological cognitive warfare has made information watering and truth forgery a new normal in combat. The virtual reality of the environment will make the judgment of truth and falsehood encounter more risks.
Difficulties in decision making
Decision-making is linked to information advantage, precision, and efficiency. The high complexity of the battlefield environment makes information warfare a high confrontational decision-making game. Deviations in decision-making may cause nonlinear fission, and the continuously superimposed variables will eventually push the war into complexity and disorder.
The decision-making ability on modern battlefields under informatised conditions is affected due to three conditions:
Static decision-making in the complex battlefield.
Human-machine mixing and shortcomings of insufficient intelligence and computing power. It is impossible to make a correct understanding and reasonable judgment of the new situation of the unknown battlefield, thereby increasing the variable of decision-making efficiency.
"Multi-level parallel decision-making" has increased decision efficiency, but it also takes a long time to correct deviations and a short decision-making time.
Difficulties in action
Informatized combat operations are full-dimensional, three-dimensional, and multi-dimensional confrontation activities supported by the network information system. Challenges in such conditions are:
Demanding command and control operations (指挥控制行动要求高): With the interconnected network of combat resources on the informationized battlefield, various actions are highly coupled and carried out concurrently. The command organization has higher requirements and greater difficulty in controlling and deploying actions.
Vulnerability in informatized systems (信息铰链行动存弱点): Although the integration of information and fire has enhanced the reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities, command and control capabilities, and lethal strike capabilities of weapons and equipment, it has also magnified the openness and vulnerability of the combat system.
Increased variables in intelligent support actions(信息铰链行动存弱点): Powered by artificial intelligence technology, the "OODA" function is integrated and integrated, and the combat force can make a rapid response without participating in the outer loop. However, the algorithm-based AI combat platform is vulnerable to cyber attacks, making its system out of control, paralyzing the system, causing the enemy to be indistinguishable, and even targeting its own side.
Development Trend of Intelligent Command and Decision-making System
In the next article in the series exploring the OODA loop in modern warfare, authors Yan Ke, Yang Kuo, and Shi Tongbo explore the development trend of intelligent command and decision-making systems.
Development Stages
There are three development stages of intelligent command and decision-making systems.
Primary stage: Human-machine co-loop
Intermediate stage: People in the loop
Advanced stage: People outside the loop
Functional Stages
To promote the development of an intelligent command and decision-making system, breakthroughs should be sought in situational awareness, decision-making suggestions, program evaluation, and flexible response.
Able to sense the battlefield and better situational awareness.
Be able to formulate plans and make recommendations
Being able to make a plan is more able to deduce the process.
More precise control and more flexible response.
The Realization of Intelligent Command and Decision-making System
The construction of the "people outside the ring" intelligent command and decision-making system should adhere to the inheritance of the achievements of the information-based command and decision-making system, and in accordance with the basic requirements of human-led, system-independent, stable and reliable, and efficient operation. Authors outline its characteristics as follows:
Design information display based on people's decision-making needs.
Design multimodal interactions by means of diverse tools.
The intervention path is designed on the basis of human intervention at any time.
Design the underpinning function with dimensionality reduction and operation as the bottom line.
Additional Reading
II. InfoBytes
"Observe–Orient–Decide–Act" (OODA) is a concept developed by military strategist and the United States Air Force Colonel John Boyd. I have covered the basics of OODA in the previous issue of China Tech Dispatch (Issue 10).
In informationized warfare, the role of people in the OODA loop is minimized. Instead, computer systems take on more and more tasks in the loop, and the command and decision-making efficiency become higher and higher, and people move from inside the loop to outside the loop. PLA writers emphasize this has become the development trend of the command and decision-making system.
Note: PLA Daily also highlighted that as early as the 1930s, Mao Zedong pointed out in "Strategic Issues in China's Revolutionary War" that the correct deployment (Action) of the commander comes from the correct determination (Decision), and the correct determination comes from Correct judgment (Orientation, judgment), the correct judgment is derived from thoughtful and necessary reconnaissance (Observation, observation), and the coherent thinking of various reconnaissance materials. Similar to Boyd's OODA loop concept.
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Megha Pardhi is a Research Analyst at The Takshashila Institution. She tweets at @pardhimegha21.