Cognitive Warfare, Winning Future Wars, and Disruptive Technologies to "Dazzle" Opponents
Issue 8, 21 Nov 2021
Before we begin, I would recommend this article my colleague Suyash Desai wrote for The Jamestown Foundation. The article is based on his upcoming research project covering China’s civilian and military developments in Tibet and its implications on India.
I. Military and Warfare
A war that opponent cannot understand (对手看不懂的战争)
This article by Wang Xueping (affiliation not given) in PLA Daily s about waging information warfare such that the enemy cannot understand the nature of war. The key to waging such warfare is the use of "disruptive technologies." The use of this tactic is important because it will show different characteristics from the past in terms of the form of engagement, combat guidance, forces participating in the war, rules of use, and mechanisms.
What is needed to fight a war that the opponent cannot comprehend?
Use of new combat methods which use new technologies and are different from those used in conventional warfare.
Having a keen mind along with a mindset to subvert conventional warfare modes, procedures, and ways of winning.
Focus on innovative military strategies
Innovation in military equipment technology
Developing qualitative and innovative technologies that can be used for subversive tactics and achieve unexpected results.
Should strive to surpass the opponent's cognitive thinking and innovate in combat methods.
The author uses cognitive warfare and electromagnetic warfare as examples of disruptive technologies that can be used to "dazzle opponents."
Information Network (信息网络): Key to Cognitive Warfare
This article by Zhai Chan (affiliation not given) presents Information Network (信息网络) as a key to winning Cognitive Warfare (认知战). The use of information networks is to provide massive amounts of information, create biased cognitive scenarios, and influence the thinking and cognition of humans and intelligent machines. The author visualizes cognitive warfare as a domain that integrates laws of information network operation and cognitive mechanism and elaborates on the basic form of cognitive warfare. In its basic form, it is visualized as:
Confusing Information (信息迷茫战): Infuse network with a large amount of complex information which contains both real and false. A massive amount of information leads to cognitive dysfunction and hampers the decision-making skills of people in key places.
Misinformation War (思维误导战): Spreading false information to create a bias or deviate people, officials, and military from correct line of thought. The author calls deviation the highest form and most common form of cognitive attack. The intent of misinformation is also to cause panic and tension.
War of will (意志毁伤战): This form involves tampering with human psychology using various techniques. It involves using material and psychological methods morale of the army, the will to fight. This form also involves affecting combat actions by directly affecting the psychological activities, mental states, and thinking decisions of key figures. Author here gives an example of "sonic cluster" technology developed by some scientists a few years ago uses electromagnetic networks to launch extremely narrow sound waves "sound beams" from hundreds of meters away, interfering with the judgment and causing strong-willed soldiers to go insane.
Means of Cognitive Warfare (认知战)
Big Data (大数据构塑): Basic ammunition of cognitive warfare which is used to construct complex scenarios to be used to mislead and cognitive overload.
Intelligent Push (智能化推送): Use of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence to collect, sort, and analyze data on people's thinking and behavior preferences. Intelligent technology is used to form anthropomorphic customized perception pushes, which can produce an "echo wall" and form an information cocoon.
Emotional Immersion (情绪化浸染): Use of information to invoke extreme emotional responses which are conditioned, impulsive, and emotional reactions. Such actions can transform seemingly isolated social cases into strong oppressive and inflammatory psychological cues and cues.
I have covered PLA’s position and approach to information warfare and cognitive warfare is last week’s issue of China Tech Dispatch.
I highly recommend reading this issue to better understand importance of public discussions on information warfare in PLA Daily.
Intelligent Combat Command Training
This article on intelligent combat command training starts with citing forecasts that in 2035, the world's major military powers may initially establish an intelligent combat system, and intelligent combat will become the basic form of warfare. The author argues that the quality of intelligent combat command depends on the quality of intelligent combat command training. Gradually, machines are playing a leading role in the front end of the war and human beings are gradually moving towards the backstage of the war to take on the tasks of general design, final decision-making, and ultimate operation control. An important aspect of intelligent combat command training is the commander's selection and application of artificial intelligence. The natural advantage of AI is the decision-making advantage, which upgrades the information advantage of information warfare to a decision-making advantage. Lastly, the author asserts that solidifying the command process to reach a quick decision and optimizing the command structure to achieve multi-domain accuracy will further improve the combat command training.
The article talks about using AI and similar tech to develop "intelligent" combat training, some form of advanced integrated combat training platform is already being used. For example, this article in last week's PLA Daily describes an exercise conducted by a brigade of the 81st group army where commanders use an integrated platform with real-time situational mapping and other command operations using information technology. The use of terms AI and Information technology can be very vague when describing such integrated systems. AI in such platforms could be performing very basic tasks and still be claimed as "intelligent."
To Win Future Wars
Following article by Zeng Haiqing from Central Theatre outlines what needs to be done to wing future wars. This is again one of many in a series of articles that discuss how to win future wars since the methods and forms of wars might change with the penetration of high-tech features. The beginning of the article itself states that "future warfare is an information warfare with intelligent characteristics" and will become a "joint operation" at an advanced stage. The point of such article seems to be fuel discussion on possibilities and nature of future wars and how to prepare for them.
The article is divided into 3 key suggestions.
Understand the connotative feature of future wars (深刻把握未来战争内涵特征)
Demarcate the basic ability to win future wars (科学标定打赢未来战争基本能力)
Actively prepare for future wars (积极做好打赢未来战争各项准备)
Understand the connotative feature of future wars (深刻把握未来战争内涵特征)
The first author suggests understanding the implied features of future warfare. Characteristics of future wars can be understood with four "highs." First, the application of high technology has the potential to change the winning mechanism, article describes such tech as invincible and unmatched. Second, the high frontier competition pushes up security threats. Third, high-level opponents are paying more attention to gaining an advantage in future wars. Hence the author suggests one should be forward-looking, should focus on better execution, strive for better technology, and aim for more autonomy. Fourth, confrontations in future wars will be of high intensity, global, and persistent.
Demarcate the basic ability to win future wars (科学标定打赢未来战争基本能力)
The article further suggests four basic capabilities that should be possessed to win future wars:
Strategic planning ability based on the overall situation of the times
Combat planning capabilities based on intelligent technology.
Command and control capabilities based on fast convergence.
System combat capability based on global integration.
Actively prepare for future wars (积极做好打赢未来战争各项准备)
The third suggestion is to actively prepare for future wars. This include:
Making effort to build a combat theory system that will lead to future warfare.
Making effort to build a new qualitative force system that can face war directly.
Making effort to build an intelligent network information system that will support future wars
Making effort to improve the joint training system for rehearsing future wars.
II. Additional Reading
China’s Military Biotech Frontier: CRISPR, Military-Civil Fusion, and the New Revolution in Military Affairs, The Jamestown Foundation.
Megha Pardhi is a Research Analyst at The Takshashila Institution. She tweets at @pardhimegha21.