ChatGPT and Warfare

Issue 41, 9 April 2023

你好，

欢迎回到 China Tech Dispatch。 好久不见！

I am excited to be back with the latest edition of China Tech Dispatch after a brief hiatus. Let me reintroduce myself. I am Megha Pardhi, a research analyst with a focus on China's military. In this newsletter, I bring fortnightly updates on “informatized” and “intelligent” warfare, new and emerging technologies, and discussions on these themes from official and state-sponsored sources in China.

In the last few months, China Tech Dispatch (CTD) crossed the threshold of 1000 subscribers! Thank you so much to all readers, and gratitude to those who stayed.

A few changes to note going forward:

• Frequency: CTD will now be published fortnightly instead of weekly.

• Topics: I will focus more on Chinese thoughts on emerging technologies in Military and Warfare. However, I will continue covering important developments from the Chinese tech sphere.

• Chat: I have enabled the Chat feature for China Tech Dispatch. This is a private space that subscribers can use for casual conversations, and provide feedback, and comments. You will be notified when the first thread via chat feature is active.

Although the focus of this newsletter is on military affairs and warfare, I love exploring and understanding China as a society and as a civilization. I look forward to recommendations on anything, be it ancient history, religion, domestic politics, Chinese cuisine (我爱做中国饭), or entertainment.

Your suggestions, feedback, brickbats, and comments are always welcome. You can tweet to @pardhimegha21. You can also reply to the email you received in your inbox -or use the chat feature offered by Substack.

Regards,

Megha

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I. Military and Warfare

Since its launch, ChatGPT has attracted a large number of users, and its possible applications in various fields have become a hot topic. Recognizing this, PLA Daily invited several scholars to write about the application of ChatGPT in the military. Three articles by three different authors highlight various aspects of the application of ChatGPT.

A. ChatGPT and its Military Applications

In the first article, Hu Xiaofeng (胡晓峰) writes about the application and importance of ChatGPT in the military.

Here is a summary of key points from the article:

• Hu's key argument is that role and influence of ChatGPT on the military field cannot be ignored. Especially if considered its application in future information-based and intelligent warfare and ChatGPT could bring a "qualitative leap to the commander's decision-making ability." However, Hu also recognizes that the impact of ChatGPT on the military field should neither be underestimated nor overestimated.

• The future battlefield will require combat personnel to have powerful intelligence collection capabilities and near-real-time information perception capabilities on the battlefield.

• In future “informationized” and intelligent warfare, ChatGPT can be used for basic tasks such as data analysis and decision support, natural language processing, and processing massive battlefield information, it will bring a qualitative leap to the decision-making ability of commanders.

• If ChatGPT is combined with other systems after professional training, it can be used for more complex tasks such as training scenario preparation, combat plan generation, combat plan arrangement, action planning drafting, exercise result commentary, etc.

• If ChatGPT continues to iteratively upgrade in the future, it may also participate in higher-level tasks such as war plan analysis and crisis response plan evaluation. Hence, undoubtedly the cutting-edge technology of artificial intelligence represented by ChatGPT will inevitably be applied in the military field.

• Operations in the cognitive domain: Hu states that ChatGPT technology may also be used to produce fake news, fake emails, and even imitate human language styles for information deception, or be used in network attacks.

• Intelligent technology mutations: Hu states that large-scale model technology like ChatGPT as a "base" is likely to trigger a batch of intelligent technology mutations, making breakthroughs in many currently stagnant intelligent technologies. For example, it can be combined with deep learning technology like "AlphaGo", and it may also lead to an upgrade of the command decision-making control system.

• Gaps in the field of military intelligence:  Not all is rosy in the world of high-tech military applications. Hu notes the inherent problems in the field of military intelligence. For example,  "strong confrontation requirement" (强对抗), "high real-time demand" (高实时), "high complexity" (过复杂), and "uncertainty" (不确定) in war. According to Hu, current technical means still have to overcome problems in "lack of samples" (“缺样本), "insufficient data" (没数据), and "insufficient openness” (不开放), and “difficult in sharing” (难共享).

Next, Hu Xiaofeng states how the concept of algorithmic warfare is already being explored by the US military. He writes,

"As early as 2017, the US military put forward the concept of "algorithmic warfare". Subsequently, the U.S. military set up a "Cross-Functional Team for Algorithmic Warfare", launched the "Code Project" project, and attracted the participation of business giants such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft to actively promote the rapid integration of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and machine learning into the U.S. military's combat system."

Lastly, Hu raises important questions on the ethics and integrity of using intelligent models like ChatGPT and their effect on people.

B. "Janus" and Intelligent Warfare

Next is a small article written by Zhao Jingxuan (赵静轩) on the same page. Zhao evokes the ancient Roman mythology of "Janus". He is a god of gates, transitions, doorways, duality, etc. Janus is supposed to have two faces. The front is facing the future, and the back face is facing the past. He is also known as the god of war and peace.

Zhao states that Janus contained both metaphors of light and darkness. These two metaphors are also applicable to the military application of artificial intelligence technology. He writes,

"When a large number of intelligent combat systems are applied to the battlefield, the cost of war will be greatly reduced, and the "zero casualties" of combatants is expected to become a reality.  However, in a complex battlefield environment, the intelligent combat system is very likely to have problems such as indiscriminate killing of innocent people due to identification errors, which will bring infinite hidden dangers to human beings."

Zhao states there is no doubt that with the development of technology, the military application of artificial intelligence will become more and more perfect. However, he emphasizes that the security, legal, and ethical issues it may bring to human society still cannot be ignored.

He suggests that we should firmly establish that human beings are the leaders of human-machine relations. We should also implement the safe and effective control of artificial intelligence, and let it driving force for the peaceful development of mankind, instead of making artificial intelligence an "accomplice of the devil."

C. ChatGPT in Combat

In this article, Hu Yushan (胡玉山) from the Joint Service Academy of PLA National Defence University (国 防 大 学 联 合 勤 务学院) writes about the possible application of ChatGPT in combat. ChatGPT can be applied in combat in four ways:

1. Efficient and fast human-computer interaction (高效快捷人机交互)

2. Involvement in the OODA cycle (深度参与“OODA”循环)

3. Application in logistics (感知掌控物流态势)

4. Fusion with manned/unmanned platforms (融 合 控 制 有/无 人 平 台)

Efficient and fast human-computer interaction

• ChatGPT is an ideal human-computer interaction interface tool since it can understand both human and machine language. Hence, it can be used for real-time battlefield situation information processing services.

• With the ability of ChatGPT to understand, respond and interact with people, it can generate realistic scenes in real-time and simulate dialogues between entities. This will significantly improve the efficiency of military intelligence processing and enhance cross-domain collaboration capabilities.

Involvement in the OODA cycle

• The improved ChatGPT is expected to be used to accurately analyze the combat requirements put forward by the commander, and generate an action reference plan, providing a new way and means for the rapid and reasonable allocation of combat forces. This will greatly shorten the combat preparation and implementation cycle.

• ChatGPT can provide commanders with real-time information about the enemy's location and actions by quickly collecting and analyzing massive intelligence data from various channels and providing fast and accurate threat assessment.

• ChatGPT can quickly help troops identify potential dangers, recommend alternative routes and strategies, and formulate action plans. These capabilities can assist commanders in making timely and correct decisions and planning combat missions to formulate optimal action plans.

Application in logistics

• ChatGPT deployed in the logistics system can carry out intensive learning based on historical data, and evolve and iterate while receiving feedback continuously.

• With support from information technologies such as the Internet of Things, cloud computing, and big data, the ChatGPT can turn the military logistics system into a super dispatcher which will quickly solve problems in the logistics supply chain.

• It can solve problems in all three links of the logistical chain:

  • Procurement link: Analysis of past material procurement data and other situations, predicting future material demand, and budgeting depending on market fluctuations.

  • Warehousing link: Improve warehouse management efficiency by analyzing data such as the number of stored materials, storage time, maintenance conditions, the intelligent matching of people and material equipment, materials and weaponry equipment, etc.

  • Transportation link: Optimal transportation plans can be formulated using intelligent analysis of demand, resources, means of delivery, and personnel information.

Fusion with manned/unmanned platforms

• On the future battlefield, ChatGPT can be integrated into unmanned combat platforms and various support systems. Driven by emerging cutting-edge technologies, people, equipment, and things could be ubiquitously interconnected, and various combat and support entities can be organically integrated.

• Additionally, if the intelligent system based on ChatGPT technology is precisely connected with the unmanned combat platform, it can adopt the "order" type to plan combat tasks, the "send order" type to assign tasks to the nearest, and "receive order" type to strike and lock targets.

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II. Book Recommendation

I recently read "The Seven Military Classics Of Ancient China" by Ralph D Sawyer.  It is a good book if you are interested in understanding ancient military thought in China. This book includes:

• Jiang Ziya (T'ai Kung)'s Six Secret Teachings (六韜)

• The Methods of the Ssu-ma(司馬法)

• Sun Tzu's Art of War (孫子兵法)

• Wu-tzu (吳子)

• Wei Liao-tzu (尉繚子)

• Three Strategies of Huang Shih-kung (黃石公三略)

• Questions and Replies between T'ang T'ai-tsung and Li Wei-kung (唐太宗李衛公問對)

It also covers notes on chariots, horses and cavalry, swords, and military organization in the appendix section book. The chronology of approximate dynastic periods given in the book helps place the writings in a historical context.

There have been some comments on the interpretation of classical Chinese texts. However, I still believe this book is a good introduction for beginners or enthusiasts.

John F Sullivan @JohnF_Sullivan

One problem in the West is that most people get their history of the Boju campaign from Ralph Sawyer's introduction to his Sun Tzu translation. Unfortunately, his version is problematic, and not supported by any of the extant texts.

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II. Additional Reading

• How Chinese military science is looking to nature to design war games

• Intelligent Algorithm: The Winning Weapon of Cognitive Domain Operations

• X. Chen, L. Li, W. Zhang and L. Li, "Command and Control System in Intelligentized Warfare," 2021 IEEE Conference on Telecommunications, Optics and Computer Science (TOCS), Shenyang, China, 2021, pp. 951-954, doi: 10.1109/TOCS53301.2021.9688937. (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9688937)

• Was Sun Tzu an Inept Strategist? By John F Sullivan

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Megha Pardhi is a Research Analyst (China Studies). She tweets at @pardhimegha21. All views expressed are personal.